Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
